High Confidence * Large-cap tech is undervalued. Big tech companies are mature enough that you can value them based on their current financials. But every one of these companies is run by a crazy visionary who has already scrapped the whole company’s model at least once. Bet on that happening
Some time near the end of 2010, Andrew Mason and Eric Lefkofsky did a little bit of subtraction, and some multiplication, and wound up with a $950 million check for Groupon’s Series G. The math worked like this: Groupon pays some customer acquisition cost to get a new user.
Active management used to be easier. Information took forever to percolate out. Big buyers and sellers accidentally tipped their hands, giving more nimble traders opportunities. Good analysts at small banks didn’t move stocks, but even mediocre analysts at big banks did. And short-term correlations were lower than medium-term correlations:
There is a great deal of ruin in a [corporation] - Adam Smith, approximately Traditionally, Uber has a very happy New Year indeed. Midnight to five AM on January 1st is one of the peaks of inelastic demand for a ride home, so they usually start the year having just
Streaming video service iflix, the Netflix of Southeast Asia, has raised at least $90m, bringing their total amount raised to $165m. The investor roster is not who you’d expect for investors buying into an early-stage growth company — they raised most of their funds from cable companies. Cable companies care
Bitcoin prices dropped 15.6% in minutes on Friday after the SEC refused to change its rules to accommodate a new Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund. The Bitcoin ETF would have allowed investors to buy and sell Bitcoin through a normal brokerage account, rather than buying it directly through a Bitcoin-specific site.
Pessimists have lots of questions about LendingClub, but optimists have just one: how do their loans perform during recessions? LendingClub made roughly 99.8% of all of the loan originations it’s ever made in the years since 2009, so the business as a whole hasn’t been stress-tested. And
Twitter is considering a paid product for power users, offering better analytics and posting tools targeted at marketers and journalists. This has mildly excited a few people — if Twitter can’t grow its monthly active user number, at least it can get a few of them to pay for it!
In a way, CNBC is the perfect business: it has a great brand name, and it caters to a rich audience. CNBC managed to create the world’s most lucrative reality TV programming, by finding stars who are already famous, and paying them $0. Really, the only problem is that
The number of UNIX installations has grown to 10, with more expected * The UNIX Programmer’s Manual, 1972 Post-scarcity economics is a fun thought experiment: what would you do if everything you needed was available for free? As rich countries asymptotically approach that state (we’re all post-scarcity with respect
Every summer, roughly two hundred thousand people around the world will take a six-hour multiple-choice and essay-question test organized by the CFA Institute. At a recommended 300 hours of study per test, we’re talking about roughly 60 million person-hours devoted to studying the ins and outs of discounted cash
“Factor-based investing” is a hot topic, but it’s a clunky misnomer. The dean of value investing, Benjamin Graham, says: An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. - Security Analysis, 1934 Factor-based investing sure isn’t that. It’s a